Accuracy scorecard
How often we're right.
Every prediction is falsifiable. We score ourselves against what actually happened. Published weekly, audit-able forever.
Calibrating · public scorecard launches once we have enough data
calibrating
We won't publish accuracy until we have enough data to publish honestly.
Depth of sampleDozens of settled predictions
Spread across timeSeveral distinct weeks
We hold publication until the sample is large enough to be honest, across enough distinct weeks to rule out a lucky run. We publish the real number or we publish nothing. Never an illustrative one.
How we score
A prediction is only real if it can be wrong.
Every reasoning chain states a falsifying observation up front. When the window closes, we check what actually happened and mark the prediction right or wrong. The tally on this page is the unfiltered result, recomputed weekly. We publish the number or we publish nothing.